His lead has shrunk while conditions remain ideal for Democrats. Senate and House candidates are doing great and he has moved back towards McCain.
It's not b.s. just because you don't want it to be true.
Tell me ONE time in the last twenty-five years that an non-incumbent was doing better before the convention and vp pick? One time. Pick whatever economic conditions you want.
You won't find a single case.
Bill Clinton was running against an incumbent with terrible job approval in tough economic times and he was in third place before the convention - third place!
Ronald Reagan was behind Carter by 8 points in the summer of 1980 when the economy was awful.
What you consider to be expected just ain't -- not in this country. And that's what bugs me about this simplistic line of argument, usually promoted by people with very minimal knowledge of American political history. You're looking for a situation that just never exists.
That's the rub, ain't it? McCain is not the incumbunt no matter how often Obama attempts to stick McCain to Bush it isn't working. McCain is not a 'new' candidate to the American people, he has been around 30 years and his brand is strong. The attempt to connect McCain to Bush has failed, need to move on to something that will actually work before its too late.
McCain doesn't have to be the incumbent to be defined as a Republican - because that's who he is and how he's voted.
BTW, I just saw Obama in NM on cnn.com and he was on fire.
In 2004, Kerry picked Edwards as his running mate on July 6, 2004. The Democratic convention ran from July 26-29, 2004. According to Electoral-Vote.com, Kerry led in the EV by 280 to 247 on July 5, 2004, the day before he picked Edwards. On July 19, 2004, one week before the start of the Democratic convention (which is where we are in the current race), Kerry was ahead 322 to 205. On this date in 2004 (August 18), Kerry was ahead 317 to 202. Currently, EV.com has Obama leading McCain in the EV 275 to 250. I have included the links below.
It's a little hard to compare directly, since Kerry made his VP pick almost 3 weeks before the start of the convention, while Obama still have not made his pick and might not until the convention itself. Still, I think I have demonstrated that Kerry was doing at least as well (if not a smidge better) as Obama before Kerry's VP pick and convention. Kerry was certainly doing better a week before his convention in late July, as well as on this day 4 years ago. So, I think your statement that no non-incumbent was doing better than Obama before his convention and VP selection is wrong. FWIW.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pr es/Maps/Jul05.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pr es/Maps/Jul19.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pr es/Maps/Aug18.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pr es/Maps/Aug18.html
Huh? Your comparison is not apples to apples.
NO ONE thinks electing the first African-American president is going to be easy.
The fact that Obama is STILL ahead despite a "tough" month says something.
AND when I TYPE in caps, my point is that much more illustrious, cogent AND fact-filled!
