MyDD :: Hillary Catches Obama Down South

Hillary Catches Obama Down South

by Zeitgeist9000, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:35:02 AM EST

This evening per American Research Group:

South Carolina
Democrats

    Jan Jan Jan Jan
15-16 17-18 22-23 24-25
Clinton     38%     39%     36%     36%
Edwards     9%     10%     12%     22%
Kucinich     1%     1%     1%     1%
Obama     44% 45%     45% 39%
Undecided 8%     5%     6%     2%

I know my title is kinda croony, but the momentum is away from Obama at this point (see last column). Edwards has gained, apparently at the expense of Clinton and Obama, but more so Obama. If Clinton stays steady in the mid to high thirties, Edwards may eat up just enough of Obama's support to carry Clinton to victory.

Tags: South Carolina 2008, Democratic Primary (all tags)

Permalink :: 17 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

I don't believe it. This poll looks like an outlier. I can't imagine Obama winning by less than 10 points, and wouldn't be surprised if it was more than 15.

by OrangeFur on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:39:59 AM EST

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

ARG has by far the best track record for accuracy, and they show Clinton with all the momentum. Even the expert pundits are finally getting ahead f the game on this one; I heard a couple today predicting a big Clinton win. Anything less than a 4 point victory will be a crushing setback for her campaign.

by aretino on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:32:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Aretino stop posting these silly C boosters (none / 0)

If you are hoping to change the expectation game against a huge Obama victory you're wasting your time.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

Good news from ARG is the kiss of death. Edwards picked up 10 points in 2 days? If only.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:42:37 AM EST

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (2.00 / 0)

An Ebony/Jet poll currently has blacks at 26% undecided.... Obama has not sealed the deal.

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:43:16 AM EST

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

For more info on that, go to:

http://skepticalbrotha.wordpress.com/

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:44:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ARG IS NOTORIOUSLY WRONG (none / 0)

HOWEVER, it should be noted that if Obama wins South Carolina by anything less than double digits, it will show indeed that Obama has not sealed the deal with AA's. Jesse Jackson btw, won South Carolina in 1988 with 64 percent of the vote, in his history making candidacy.

I do think that there is more at stake in this election, however, than identity politics alone, so who knows.

Hillary/Obama 2008

by Sandy1938 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:53:37 AM EST

Re: ARG IS NOTORIOUSLY WRONG (none / 0)

I looked it up today, it was 54 percent. But yeah, he kicked the stuffing out of Al Gore!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:35:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

That poll is an outlier. Obama has a 20 point win in the bag. I heard it from some experts on TV tonight.

by hwc on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 01:58:33 AM EST

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

You're an expert.

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:04:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: ZOGBY POLL (none / 0)

Latest Zogby Poll

OBAMA 41
CLINTON 26
Edwards 19

by BDM on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:08:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

Meh. Not counting on it.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:10:28 AM EST

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South not quite (none / 0)

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama expanded his lead on rival Hillary Clinton to 15 points heading into South Carolina's bitterly contested presidential primary, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Obama, an Illinois senator, gained two points on Clinton overnight to lead 41 percent to 26 percent just hours before voting began in Saturday's primary. John Edwards was in third place after slipping two points to 19 percent.

by BDM on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:12:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Catches Obama Down South (none / 0)

ARG- they are awful.

by reasonwarrior on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:20:49 AM EST

After NH (none / 0)

Obama better be working overtime to turn his voters out.

by Toddwell on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:38:04 AM EST

Re: After NH (none / 0)

Well, I'll speak for myself. I have to report at 6am in 3 hours to work as a poll checker (important part of the GOTV). We're doing everything we can. I don't too much about Clinton's organization, but I would guess that it's better than Edwards' but slightly weaker than ours. I have no idea how this will turnout. I'm just going to do my job.

Now it's time for my cat-nap.

by DPW on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It seems very unsettled to me. (none / 0)

My commonsense tells me Obama wins this but with below a 10% lead but there are enough shards of info to suggest something maybe happening out there. It probably just means that he isn't going win by the 20% his followers are predicting.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 10:32:00 AM EST

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