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Website: Chase Martyn (On Display)

Managing Editor, Iowa Independent

Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/28 - 11/4)

University of Iowa professor and pollster David Redlawsk kicked off the week's presidential campaign news in Iowa when he announced the latest Hawkeye Poll results.  On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Iowa with 28.9% to Sen. Barack Obama's 26.6%, former Sen. John Edwards's 20%, Gov. Bill Richardson's 7.2%, and Sen. Joe Biden's 5.2%.

On the Republican side, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 36.2%, head and shoulders above Rudy Giuliani's 13.1%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee's 12.8%, former Sen. Fred Thompson's 11.4%, and Sen. John McCain's 6%.

The Hawkeye Poll's methodology has been the subject of some controversy, but in an interview with Iowa Independent, Redlawsk defended himself against his critics.  New American Research Group polls from the beginning of the week show somewhat different results, but the candidate rankings in the two polls vary only slightly.  Consensus remains that Romney is the Iowa Republican frontrunner, and any of the top three Democrats could win the Democratic caucuses.

Another poll, released by the National Wildlife Federation, showed that 69% of Iowa hunters and fishermen believe global warming is occurring.  66% of that group also believe that conservation is at least as important as gun rights.

Tuesday night's debate between the Democratic candidates in Philadelphia, PA, made for a relatively quiet week on the Democratic side in Iowa.  Obama visited Cedar Rapids Monday for a speech on Social Security and an appearance in front of young people for a forum sponsored by MTV News and MySpace.  In Washington, DC, Wednesday, Clinton announced her endorsement from AFSCME, a union often touted as influential in the Iowa Caucuses.  Thursday, Edwards announced his first major Iowa television ad buy of the 2008 campaign.   Obama and Clinton had announced new TV ads Sunday and Monday, respectively.  Most of the Democratic field did not return to Iowa until the end of the week.

On the Republican side, things quieted down after last week's Republican Party fundraising dinner, where Huckabee received most of the buzz.  Romney was the only major candidate to appear in Iowa later in the week.  In Marshalltown, he was videotaped telling a crowd that "you probably don't have a lot of immigrants legally" in Iowa.

Next week promises to be more exciting, as the last major cattle-call of Democratic candidates in Iowa, the annual Jefferson Jackson fundraising dinner, happens over the weekend.  In the lead-up to the event, candidates will struggle to build crowds and show strength as the national press corps flies back into town.

Iowa Caucuses Roundup (10/20-10/27)

I have been writing a weekly roundup of presidential campaign news in Iowa to be crossposted in a few places for the last couple of months, and I figured I might as well start crossposting them here as well.  I live in Iowa, I'm managing editor of Iowa Independent, and I also blog at Chase Martyn (On Display).

Last week kicked off with a bang when Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama clashed in Iowans' mailboxes.  Clinton, who has been criticized by all of her Democratic opponents for her vote in favor of a senate resolution classifying Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group, sent out a mailing to defend her vote last weekend.  Tuesday, Obama mailed his response, a less wordy postcard proclaiming, "While other Democrats voted for for [sic] the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, Barack Obama opposed another Bush foreign policy fiasco."

It was also rumored that Clinton would receive the endorsement of AFSCME, which is a significant force in the Iowa Caucuses.

Later in the week, former Sen. John Edwards completed his visits to all of Iowa's 99 counties -- a feat he had also accomplished leading up to the 2004 Iowa Caucuses.  Edwards is the first candidate to have reached this milestone this year, and he noted that "Not only have I visited all 99 counties, I've been taking questions from Iowans in all 99 counties."  This after releasing his Hunting and Fishing Bill of Rights and Responsibilities on Wednesday.

In other Democratic news, we now know the date of the 2008 Iowa Caucuses.  Democrats will hold their precinct meetings on January 3, the same day as the Republicans.  Although the new date will change the dynamics of the caucuses somewhat, Iowa will likely remain the most influential primary state in the Democratic nominating contest.

The Republican primary calendar also made news last week, when the Republican National Committee voted to sanction New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan, and Wyoming for hosting binding primary contests before February 5.  (Iowa and Nevada, whose Republican caucuses are not binding on delegate selection, will not receive penalties.)

Thursday evening, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. John McCain were the only two candidates to appear at an AARP-sponsored forum on health care (the rest of the Republican candidates declined invitations to attend).  Rep. Ron Paul spent the end of the week campaigning in Iowa, including a stop in Ames.

Although former Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Tom Tancredo also spent time around Iowa during the week, much of the buzz surrounded Huckabee, whose band played a show at the famous Surf Ballroom, the venue where Buddy Holly played his last concert before his plane went down in Iowa, Friday night.

Saturday, most of the Republican field attended the Iowa GOP's annual Ronald Reagan dinner in Des Moines.  Iowa Independent's Jay Wagner reported that "Fred Thompson may have gotten more laughs during his speech, but surging Mike Huckabee received the only genuine standing ovation of the night."  Tancredo, Huckabee, Paul, former Sen. Fred Thompson, Rep. Duncan Hunter, John Cox, and Romney's wife Ann spoke at the dinner, while Romney himself, Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain campaigned outside the state.

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